Well. That was interesting.

The election happened on Tuesday and now it’s Friday night. Between then and now, Democrats went from despairing over the loss of Florida and the Senate to realising they might actually win the White House. And then realising they were definitely going to win the White House. Then realising there would be two runoffs in Georgia, meaning they could even win the Senate, as long shot as it might be.

At this point, the race hasn’t officially been called. Biden has been stuck at 253 votes for several days, but it’s clear the votes in Pennsylvania…


A farewell

I wanted this project to have some sort of conclusion, so we’ll go with this for now. Today it’s Christmas in America and the day after Christmas in New Zealand. Trump lost across the board, and is melting down just like we knew he would. The Senate races in Georgia are happening on the 5th of January. Joe Biden will be our next president. Trump is pardoning lots and lots of people, including people who helped him break the law. Covid is much worse than it’s ever been, and accelerating by the day.

On the other hand, Trump will be…


The last debate between Trump and Biden just ended. Trump actually managed to answer questions without too much interrupting. To that end, he probably helped his case a bit. Is it enough to matter? We’ll see.

Well, inauguration day is in 90 days. Meaning this post will hit the internet on the same day. I realise that in my previous post I assumed Trump would lose. But of course, that’s not a sure thing. He could still win. His chances aren’t greta, but it could happen. Let’s brainstorm different things that can happen.

Trump wins and the people agree
It’s possible…


It’s October 22. How do things feel?

Well, Rudy Guliani is about to be featured in the new Borat movie, which apparently comes out tomorrow. I doubt we’ll remember it in 90 days, but maybe.

Hunter Biden’s laptop scandal is going through some interesting iterations. First everyone shut it down, including Twitter and Facebook. But now the Wall Street Journal is saying Joe Biden needs to respond. It feels like it’s a slow burn but the story may actually end up meaning something.

The second and final debate is tomorrow. Trump’s campaign has been working the refs. He was rewarded…


This morning, Trump threw an event at the White House. It was his first public event like this since he came down with Covid over a week ago, and he only spoke for 18 minutes. Despite officials saying the event would last 30.

It was also reported that 2000 were invited and 400 showed up. When we combine two things we know about Trump — he loves crowds and he speaks over his allocated time — this is highly unusual and probably disappointing for him.

At this point, no one really knows how Trump is doing. He’s calling in to…


Oops, I forgot to write the last week of updates. So here’s pretty much what happened in the last six days:

  • Trump went to the hospital
  • More people fell ill
  • Trump’s post-debate polling collapsed (down 14 and 16 in two outlier polls)
  • Trump came out of the hospital too early, by most accounts
  • Trump was wheezing when he returned to the residence
  • The VP debate was last night
  • Some people wonder if Pence has Covid
  • Now we’re debating what the next debate should look like

So if I forecast out by 90 days, it’ll be the 6th of January. That…


Trump has been hospitalised.

Lots of other people have been infected too. Senators Lee and Tillis, Kellyanne Conway, his campaign manager, some others I can’t remember right now. It’s been a very intense day.

He was able to walk to the helicopter himself, and he sent out a video beforehand explaining what was happening. His doctors have been treating him and they say he’ll be at the hospital for a few days.

The most interesting detail in a very interesting day is the fact that the Senate vote count might be at risk. If too many senators fall ill, they can’t be present to vote. I still expect them to find a way, but this is definitely a curveball.

That Rose Garden meeting is turning into a super-spreader event. A lot more people are probably about to fall ill. Crazy times.


Trump has Covid.

There were a lot of other things going on today, probably, but since the news came in about three hours ago, it’s hard to think about anything else.

Trump’s polls got worse. According to one, he’s even losing in Georgia now, which is insane. That’s like a Democrat losing in New York. There’s more evidence that the refusal to condemn Proud Boys is hurting Trump in even deeper ways, especially with the middle. But even Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert and long-time Trump fan, said enough was enough today. That’s a bad day for Trump.

But…


[A quick note about timing: I’m writing this on September 29, US-time. But technically it’s September 30, 2020 where I live in New Zealand.]

The big news today is going to be Joe Biden’s first debate with Donald Trump. For about a year, the Bernie Sanders faithful pointed to this day as the end of the road for candidate Biden. The conventional wisdom was that Joe Biden is senile, out of his depth, and would look lost on a debate stage against Donald Trump, a masterful debater. I’m not so sure about that.

First, the “Joe Biden is suffering dementia”…


Holy cow.

So the first presidential debate happened, and it’s been universally condemned. It’s not hard to imagine it going down in history as a historic blunder, one taught in classes as what not to do. I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back in 30 days, in the last few days of 2020, and think this was the moment he decisively lost the presidency.

But I don’t want to overstate it. Maybe Americans loved watching Trump’s aggressive and mean style. Maybe they appreciate heckling and bickering. Maybe they think it’s cool that he told the Proud Boys to “stand…

90 Days Ago Trump

I analyze the Trump presidency, then share the essays 90 days later, like a time capsule.

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