October 10, 2020

This morning, Trump threw an event at the White House. It was his first public event like this since he came down with Covid over a week ago, and he only spoke for 18 minutes. Despite officials saying the event would last 30.

It was also reported that 2000 were invited and 400 showed up. When we combine two things we know about Trump — he loves crowds and he speaks over his allocated time — this is highly unusual and probably disappointing for him.

At this point, no one really knows how Trump is doing. He’s calling in to TV shows and giving long, raging interviews. He’s sounding better. But on the other hand, he’s not sharing any medical details, and there are plenty of signs he’s still not feeling great.

Maybe he only spoke for 18 minutes because the crowd was disappointing and he couldn’t get excited about a small crowd. But statistically it feels more likely that he couldn’t maintain the stamina he needed because he’s still recovering from a tricky, fatiguing, intense disease.

At this point the numbers show a clear House victory for Democrats, a probable but not easy Senate victory, and a cakewalk into the White House. More and more stories are being published about how the GOP is “socially distancing” from Trump. We all (in the reality-based community) understand Trump is in deep political trouble.

But his health is another matter. He might be ok. He might not be. Several Republican senators like Graham are refusing to be tested, presumably so they can make sure they get their Supreme Court seat without any pesky tests getting in the way. It’ll probably work for them.