October 23, 2020
The last debate between Trump and Biden just ended. Trump actually managed to answer questions without too much interrupting. To that end, he probably helped his case a bit. Is it enough to matter? We’ll see.
Well, inauguration day is in 90 days. Meaning this post will hit the internet on the same day. I realise that in my previous post I assumed Trump would lose. But of course, that’s not a sure thing. He could still win. His chances aren’t greta, but it could happen. Let’s brainstorm different things that can happen.
Trump wins and the people agree
It’s possible that Trump wins and most people agree he won fair and square. There would be protests and gnashing of teeth, but if you can get mainstream voters agreeing that he genuinely got the right number of electoral votes, he’d stay in office and that would be that.
But there’s still no way he’ll win the popular vote. It would be electoral college only, just like 2016.
Trump wins and the people don’t agree
This one is scary to imagine. We know Trump people will say he won fair and square. We know his critics will say he cheated. But if the vast middle of America believes that the election was stolen, that’ll be terrifying. Protests, violence in the streets, and a president untethered from needing to run for re-election.
If this happened, inauguration day would be … hard to even imagine. Would the people burn everything down? Would the military support him? I just don’t know.
Biden wins and the people don’t agree
This one is hard to imagine. Trump people will contest it, but Biden is expected to win and will probably win. So the people disagreeing doesn’t seem to be likely.
Biden wins and the people agree
This scenario seems most likely. I suspect Trump will have fought and complained bitterly, but by this day he’d be done. I wonder what kind of counter-programming he’ll have? I wonder how the pictures on the National Mall will look? Trump’s presidency started with meagre turnout on the Mall, it’d be fun to end it with a giant crowd ready to move past him.
But back in real time, October 23, we just don’t know. Trump is still in trouble in all the states he needs. Some polls tightened a little bit, but nothing that looks like a trend or anything that brings Trump close enough to win.