September 26, 2020

The one sentence summary as of today is “Trump is losing in the polls, but he’s going to contest the election and he’s screwing up the Postal Service in order to help sow confusion and doubt.”

It was this week that Trump refused, multiple times, to respect the results of the election. He’s been openly stating at rallies that the only he can lose is if the system is rigged. Everyone is on red alert as a result.

Prediction time: December 26, 2020

Well, it’s going to be a wild Christmas. I think we all know that. Here are the best specifics I can forecast, based on the available information we have.

First, Biden is going to win. I don’t know if he’s going to win Florida but it won’t matter. He’s going to get a band of states from Pennsylvania to Minnesota, which also includes Wisconsin and Michigan. And that’ll be enough to win, but he won’t stop there. He’s also going to get Arizona and I’d like to think he’ll get North Carolina as well. Biden will win.

Second, Trump abso-fucking-lutely will not concede. On election night, there will be ample discussions about uncounted ballots but it won’t matter. Trump will immediately latch on to some “irregularities” bullshit and bang the drum for months. I don’t think things will be called on election night, but it’ll become clear within about 24 hours where the data is headed … and Trump will have an absolute fit.

Then the clock will start ticking. Election day is early November, but inauguration day is a full two months later. Trump will use every single second of that time to contest the results. There will be lawsuits and confusion (helpfully added to by Russia) and it’s going to be intense.

But despite the worst case scenarios we can all imagine, and know Trump is going to aggressively pursue, it’ll be pretty clear that Trump lost. It’ll be less civil war and more pathetic last minute legal manuevering that everyone sees through.

Third, of course Amy Barrett will be confirmed. Duh. She was only named 3 hours ago but it’s clear that of course she’ll be seated. Which means she’ll be on the court for an ACA hearing. I can’t predict what will happen at that point, but … it’ll definitely be interesting.

So how does December 26th, 2020 look overall? I think it’ll be clear that Trump lost. I think it’s clear he’ll be contesting with every fibre of his being. I think Covid will still be super bad. (We’re at 200k deaths now, and we all know it’ll go quite a bit higher) I think the system will work, eventually, and make it clear that Trump did not earn a second term.

Will there be armed militias? Of course. Will there be street fighting? Of course. But will Trump be winning the fight on the 26th of December? No, I don’t think so. Saying that today, on the 26 of September, puts me in a very naive-sounding minority. But it’s what I think will happen.

But I guess we’ll see! Gulp.